Summary of Die-Casting Zinc Alloy Import and Export in 2024 and 2025 Import and Export Outlook [SMM Analysis]

SMM January 22 News:

According to customs data, in December 2024, China's export volume of unwrought zinc alloy reached 4,397.25 mt, up 42.48% YoY; the import volume for the month was 651.41 mt, up 11.56% YoY. For the entire year of 2024, the total export volume of unwrought zinc alloy reached 5,310.8 mt, up 52.98% YoY, while the total import volume was 49,670.99 mt, up 0.91% YoY.

From the perspective of import and export countries, the top three destinations for China's unwrought zinc alloy exports in 2024 were Taiwan, China (1,975.41 mt), followed by Vietnam (1,012.04 mt), and Bangladesh (680.42 mt). Exports to Russia saw a significant increase in 2024. On the import side, the top three countries for China's imports in 2024 were South Korea (13,978.79 mt), Japan (8,868.25 mt), and Vietnam (2,530.67 mt).

From the data, China's die-casting zinc alloy exports performed exceptionally well in 2024, driven by several key factors.

First, from the overall annual trend, the significant growth in China's die-casting zinc alloy export volume was mainly concentrated in Q2 and Q4. During this period, the yuan exchange rate was at a relatively low level, enhancing the competitiveness of die-casting zinc alloy in the international market and strongly boosting the export performance of unwrought zinc alloy.

Additionally, in Q4, the US presidential election results, with Trump taking office, led to a "rush to export" phenomenon among some end-user factories. This further contributed to the outstanding performance of China's die-casting zinc alloy exports. These factors collectively laid the foundation for the remarkable achievements of China's die-casting zinc alloy in 2024.

What kind of situation will China's die-casting zinc alloy imports and exports face in 2025, and how will the overall trend develop?

First, there are several risk points for 2025:

1. Trump took office on January 20, and in his over 30-minute inaugural speech, he stated that he would establish an external revenue bureau for trade and declared that "a large amount of money will flow into our treasury from abroad." This tariff-heavy approach will undoubtedly pose significant resistance to China's zinc alloy exports in 2025, which deserves our attention.
2. Secondly, the market believes that the US economy remains resilient, and this resilience is one of the key factors supporting the strong US dollar. A strong US dollar will relatively increase the export competitiveness pressure on Chinese goods.

Meanwhile, some die-casting zinc alloy enterprises have indicated that a portion of their 2025 export orders has already been signed, and such orders are less affected by tariffs.

In summary, under the influence of tariffs and exchange rates, the overall changes in China's die-casting zinc alloy exports in 2025 may remain relatively small.

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